Who is winning the 2013 Australian Election in Social Media?

Posted on by in Election, Social Media

Australian Election

 

Just under 3 years ago we wrote about who was winning the 2010 Australian Election based on Social Media. We incorrectly suggested that, although it was close, the Libs would win because they had a far greater following online. This time we are improving our methodology, and once again we are trying to find out who will win the 2013 Australia Election in social media. We are living in an age of 24/7 social media, and we believe that the effect a person has in the new media is as important as the old media. Social reach and influence are important not only to ensure that a political message is spread, but also that a political party member stays relevant and in touch with issues. We compiled this document on the current status of social media in by Australian Politicians. We looked at every member of the Australian Parliament, and what their use of social media was including Twitter influence and if they used their Facebook page.

If we were to look at which members are involved in social media at all, we would see that 30 Labor party members have no twitter account, and 36 have no Facebook page, including Greg Combet who has neither. This is compared to 16 Lib members with no Twitter account, and 35 with no Facebook. Based on this alone the Labor party seems to be losing ground to the Libs.

Google

australian-search-trends Google Trends shows that, over the last 90 days, the Lib party has been searched more frequently in every state. Across Australia they have been ahead in both searches and news references since the last election. Obviously there can be a murkiness to these statistics, because people may not be searching for the federal Labor or Lib parties, however there is no way of calculating the intent of users, so this is the best we can get. One an Internet search level, it is clear the Lib party are ahead.

On a party leader level, Gillard has almost double the search volume of Abbott. This time during the last election they were much closer together, and this may be another symptom of Gillard being the current PM, rather than any preference for leader.

Facebook

average-facebook-popularityu Since the last election, Social media has become far more mainstream, and this is reflected in the numbers. The Labor party page has 10 times more followers on Facebook than 3 years ago, with fans measured in the hundreds of thousands, rather than just thousands.

If the election were based on Facebook fans, the Labor party would win. Their members have by far the highest average number of fans, and the highest in total, led largely by Julia Gillard‘s 161k fans, which is almost 5 times the number of fans that Tony Abbott has. Of the top 10 most followed members on Facebook, Labor have 5 with the Libs on 3, and Alex Gallacher for the Greens and Andrew Wilkie as an independent.

The trend is reversed when looking at the party level, as the Lib Party has 53k with the Labor Party only 44k, and the Australian Greens have 48k fans. Again, we are still waiting for a “Super Poke” from Julia Gillard, or maybe Tony Abbott will trade with us on Farmville.

Twitter

average-klout-score

For twitter influence we looked at Klout, a social measurement serVICe. Again, as a reflection on the importance of Social Media, Tony Abbott is now following people and seems far more active on the site. From only has 603 followers in 2010 to 126k followers now. Julia Gillard on the other hand has grown from 43000 followers to 388k, including us, still! Julia’s influence is in the top 91% of people on the web, with her Twitter account clearly the center of many hubs.

This time, compared with the last election, the Labor party leads by quite a way in terms of social influence. The two social big guns of Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd help lead a party that have some very active participants in Twitter. By contrast, 17 of the 26 least influential members are Lib party members, including poor Jo Gash, with zero followers.

Also worth noting is that on average the smaller parties have more active members. Obviously this is helped by the fact that they have fewer members (so have to be more active). Overall this time it looks like the Labor party have improved on their use of Social Media, and have increased their reach. Over the next few weeks we will see if this will translate into a winning formula for the election.

Name Constituency State Party Twitter profile Followers Klout  score Facebook page Likes
Bob Baldwin Paterson NSW Lib @bobbaldwinmp 3787 57 /bobbaldwinmp none available
John Alexander Bennelong NSW Lib @JohnAlexanderMP 2632 46 /john.alexanderbennelong none available
Sharon Bird Cunningham NSW Labor @SharonBirdMP 2584 44 /sharon.bird.mp none available
Bruce Billson Dunkley VIC Lib @BruceBillsonMP 1935 54 /bruce.billson none available
Kevin Andrews Menzies VIC Lib @kevinandrewsmp 2475 50 /kevinandrewsmp none available
Julia Gillard Lalor VIC Labor @JuliaGillard 386101 92 /juliagillard 161753
Kevin Rudd Griffith Queensland Labor @KRuddMP 1229141 87 /KevinRuddMP 75657
Tony Abbott Warringah NSW Lib @TonyAbbottMHR 124978 71 /TonyAbbottMP 34990
Malcolm Turnbull Wentworth NSW Lib @TurnbullMalcolm 166458 72 /malcolmturnbull 14511
Alex Gallacher  Melbourne VIC Greens @AdamBandt 28514 71 /Adam.Bandt.MP 9110
Christopher Pyne Sturt SA Lib none available /christopher.pyne 6098
Wayne Swan Lilley Queensland Labor @SwannyDPM 40995 70 /Wayne.Swan.MP 5379
Bill Shorten Maribyrnong VIC Labor @billshortenmp 21748 66 /BillShorten 5302
Chris Bowen McMahon NSW Labor @Bowenchris 13314 58 /chrisbowenmp 3467
Andrew Wilkie Denison Tas Independent @WilkieMP 5219 none /andrewwilkiemp 3260
Mark Dreyfus Isaacs VIC Labor none available /mark.dreyfus 3076
Peter Garrett Kingsford Smith NSW Labor @PGarrettMP 29604 65 /PeterGarrettAMMP 2584
Julie Owens Parramatta NSW Labor @JulieOwensMP 902 45 /julie.owens.mp 2481
Kate Ellis Adelaide SA Labor @KateEllisMP 32930 61 /pages/Kate-Ellis-MP/248221178548054 2157
Anthony Byrne Holt VIC Labor @AnthonyByrne_MP 1608 46 /anthonybyrne 2069
Ed Husic Chifley NSW Labor @edhusicMP 7200 63 /ehusic 1936
Kelly O’Dwyer Higgins VIC Lib @KellyODwyer 6305 55 /pages/Kelly-ODwyer/171601117783 1822
Natasha Griggs Solomon Northern Territory Country Lib Party @NatashaGriggsMP 1841 48 /natashagriggsmp 1735
David Bradbury Lindsay NSW Labor @DavidBradburyMP 7591 60 /DavidBradburyMP 1692
Catherine King Ballarat VIC Labor @CatherineKingMP 3676 57 /CatherineKingMP 1676
Bob Katter Kennedy Queensland Katter’s Australian @RealBobKatter 8911 61 /bobkattermp 1661
Teresa Gambaro Brisbane Queensland Lib @TeresaGambaroMP 1836 48 /TeresaGambaroMP 1634
Julie Collins Franklin Tas Labor @JulieCollinsMP 881 50 /juliecollinsmp 1572
Craig Kelly Hughes NSW Lib @CraigKellyMP 695 41 /CraigKellyMP 1504
Louise Markus Macquarie NSW Lib none available /louise.markus.mp 1463
Shayne Neumann Blair Queensland Labor @ShayneNeumannMP 2406 52 /shayne.neumann 1395
Scott Morrison Cook NSW Lib @ScottMorrisonMP 12735 61 /pages/Scott-Morrison/101546263223119 1263
Anna Burke Chisholm VIC Labor none available /MP.AnnaBurke 1236
Michelle Rowland Greenway NSW Labor @MRowlandMP 2400 59 /mrowlandmp 1141
Stephen Jones Throsby NSW Labor @stephenjonesALP 3935 50 /pages/Stephen-Jones-for-Throsby/324823886818 1100
Laura Smyth La Trobe VIC Labor none available /pages/Laura-Smyth/251753603620 1043
Nola Marino Forrest WA Lib @NolaMarinoMP 363 38 /nola.marino.mp 1019
Amanda Rishworth Kingston SA Labor @AmandaRishworth 3145 51 /AmandaRishworth 963
Deborah O’Neill Robertson NSW Labor @Deborah_ONeill 2689 49 /DebONeillMP 920
Andrew Leigh Fraser ACT Labor none available /pages/Andrew-Leigh-MP/129819533748295 918
elissa Parke Fremantle WA Labor none available /MelissaParkeMP 656
Paul Fletcher Bradfield NSW Lib @paulwfletcher 3530 52 /pages/Paul-Fletcher/142496131402 623
Rob Mitchell McEwen VIC Labor @RobMitchellMP 2489 57 /pages/Rob-Mitchell-MP-Federal-Labor-Member-for-McEwen/113830088678537 622
Josh Frydenberg Kooyong VIC Lib @JoshFrydenberg 4095 54 /JoshFrydenbergMP 618
Bernie Ripoll Oxley Queensland Labor none available /pages/Bernie-Ripoll/47126097966 552
Russell Matheson Macarthur NSW Lib @RussellMatheson 523 45 /pages/Russell-Matheson-MP-Federal-Member-for-Macarthur/164320700256328 548
Ewen Jones Herbert Queensland Lib @EwenJonesMP 995 40 /ewenjonesmp 547
Brendan O’Connor Gorton VIC Labor none available www.facebook.com/BrendanOConnorMP?s 527
Nick Champion Wakefield SA Labor @NickChampionMP 3937 54 /pages/Nick-Champion-MP/325495831575 490
Craig Emerson Rankin Queensland Labor @CraigEmersonMP 12957 59 /craigemersonmp 466
Gary Gray AO Brand WA Labor none available /garygraymp 440
Darren Cheeseman Corangamite VIC Labor @DCheesemanMP 1056 48 /darren.cheeseman.mp 402
Alan Tudge Aston VIC Lib @AlanTudgeMP 1395 52 /tudgeMP 312
Yvette D’Ath Petrie Queensland Labor none available /YvetteDAth 308
Sussan Ley Farrer NSW Lib @sussanley 3115 46 www.facebook.com/SussanLeyMP 301
Richard Marles Corio VIC Labor @RichardMarlesMP 10441 53 /richardmarlesmp 292
Karen Andrews McPherson Queensland Lib @KarenAndrewsMP 1198 46 /KarenAndrewsMP?ref=ts 239
Dick Adams Lyons Tas Labor none available /Dick.Adams.MP 202
Alby Schultz Hume NSW Lib @albyschultz 133 /pages/Alby-Schultz/109108692440567 41
Alex Hawke Mitchell NSW Lib @AlexHawkeMP 6070 60 /pages/Alex-Hawke-MP/162305300494678?fref=ts 6
Gai Brodtmann Canberra ACT Labor none available none available
Warren Snowdon Lingiari Northern Territory Labor none available none available
Michael McCormack Riverina NSW Nat @M_McCormackMP 245 45 /michael.mccormack.336
Robert Oakeshott Lyne NSW Independent @OakeyMP 17855 66 /robert.oakeshott.MP
Tony Windsor New England NSW Independent @TonyWindsorMP 5800 62 none available
Craig Thomson Dobell NSW Independent @DobellThommo 6393 60 none available
Tony Burke Watson NSW Labor @Tony_Burke 22946 81 none available
Anthony Albanese Grayndler NSW Labor @AlboMP 21,799 66 none available
Tanya Plibersek Sydney NSW Labor @tanya_plibersek 18644 63 none available
Mike Kelly Eden-Monaro NSW Labor @MikeKellyMP 6292 60 none available
Joel Fitzgibbon Hunter NSW Labor @fitzhunter 6236 57 none available
Jason Clare Blaxland NSW Labor @JasonClareMP 8271 56 none available
Jill Hall Shortland NSW Labor @JillHallMP 55 none available
Janelle Saffin Page NSW Labor @JanelleSaffin 1463 50 none available
Laurie Ferguson Werriwa NSW Labor @FergusonLMP 548 45 none available
Greg Combet Charlton NSW Labor none available none available
Justine Elliot Richmond NSW Labor none available none available
Sharon Grierson Newcastle NSW Labor none available none available
Chris Hayes Fowler NSW Labor none available none available
Robert McClelland Barton NSW Labor none available none available
Daryl Melham Banks NSW Labor none available none available
John Murphy Reid NSW Labor none available none available
Joe Hockey North Sydney NSW Lib @JoeHockey 72015 82 none available
Alex Hawke Mitchell NSW Lib @AlexHawkeMP 6074 60 none available
Joanna Gash Gilmore NSW Lib @JoGash 0 37 none available
Philip Ruddock Berowra NSW Lib none available none available
Alby Schultz Hume NSW Lib none available none available
John Cobb Calare NSW Nat none available none available
Mark Coulton Parkes NSW Nat none available none available
Luke Hartsuyker Cowper NSW Nat none available none available
Graham Perrett Moreton Queensland Labor @GrahamPerrettMP 3469 /graham.perrett.1
Jane Prentice Ryan Queensland Lib @JanePrentice_MP 1187 47 /janeprenticemp
Peter Slipper Fisher Queensland Independent @PeterSlipperMP 6614 57 none available
Kirsten Livermore Capricornia Queensland Labor none available none available
Wyatt Roy Longman Queensland Lib @Wyatt_Roy_MP 8293 55 none available
Peter Dutton Dickson Queensland Lib @peter_dutton 3 54 none available
Stuart Robert Fadden Queensland Lib @stuartrobertmp 5104 53 none available
Steven Ciobo Moncrieff Queensland Lib @steveciobo 4158 50 none available
Andrew Laming Bowman Queensland Lib @AndrewLamingMP 4248 45 none available
Bert van Manen Forde Queensland Lib @BertVanManen 655 44 none available
Scott Buchholz Wright Queensland Lib @ScottBuchholzMP 1014 42 none available
Warren Entsch Leichhardt Queensland Lib none available none available
Ian Macfarlane Groom Queensland Lib none available none available
Alexander Somlyay Fairfax Queensland Lib none available none available
Ross Vasta Bonner Queensland Lib none available none available
George Christensen Dawson Queensland Nat @GChristensenMP 1946 53 none available
Paul Neville Hinkler Queensland Nat none available none available
Ken O’Dowd Flynn Queensland Nat none available none available
Bruce Scott Maranoa Queensland Nat none available none available
Warren Truss Wide Bay Queensland Nat none available none available
Mark Butler Port Adelaide SA Labor @Mark_Butler_MP 8072 61 none available
Amanda Rishworth Kingston SA Labor @AmandaRishworth 3181 51 none available
Steve Georganas Hindmarsh SA Labor @stevegeorganas 3806 47 none available
Jamie Briggs Mayo SA Lib @BriggsJamie 5129 59 none available
Andrew Southcott Boothby SA Lib @asouthcottmp 2663 50 none available
Rowan Ramsey Grey SA Lib none available none available
Patrick Secker Barker SA Lib none available none available
Tony Zappia Makin SA Labor
Geoff Lyons Bass Tas Labor none available none available
Sid Sidebottom Braddon Tas Labor none available none available
Sophie Mirabella Indi VIC Lib @SMirabellaMP 4683 58 /sophie.m.mp
Simon Crean Hotham VIC Labor @SimonCrean_MP 11023 56 none available
Steve Gibbons Bendigo VIC Labor @SteveGibbonsMP 4797 55 none available
Kelvin Thomson Wills VIC Labor @KelvinThomsonMP 2018 47 none available
Maria Vamvakinou Calwell VIC Labor @MariaVamvakinou 930 37 none available
Michael Danby Melbourne Ports VIC Labor none available none available
Martin Ferguson Batman VIC Labor none available none available
Alan Griffin Bruce VIC Labor none available none available
Harry Jenkins Scullin VIC Labor none available none available
Jenny Macklin Jagajaga VIC Labor none available none available
Nicola Roxon Gellibrand VIC Labor none available none available
Mike Symon Deakin VIC Labor none available none available
Greg Hunt Flinders VIC Lib @GregHuntMP 9726 61 none available
Sharman Stone Murray VIC Lib @SharmanStone 1512 50 none available
Dan Tehan Wannon VIC Lib @DanTehanWannon 1232 46 none available
Andrew Robb Goldstein VIC Lib @AndrewRobbMP 9065 none available
Russell Broadbent McMillan VIC Lib none available none available
Tony Smith Casey VIC Lib none available none available
Darren Chester Gippsland VIC Nat none available none available
John Forrest Mallee VIC Nat none available none available
Michael Keenan Stirling WA Lib @MichaelKeenanMP 1736 46 /MichaelKeeenanMP
Stephen Smith Perth WA Labor none available none available
Julie Bishop Curtin WA Lib @JulieBishopMP 29259 63 none available
Dennis Jensen Tangney WA Lib @DennisJensenMP 2139 54 none available
 Ken Wyatt Hasluck WA Lib @KenWyattMP 4973 45 none available
Steve Irons Swan WA Lib @SteveIronsMP 2405 45 none available
Luke Simpkins Cowan WA Lib @LukeSimpkinsMP 325 43 none available
Barry Haase Durack WA Lib none available none available
Judi Moylan Pearce WA Lib none available none available
Don Randall Canning WA Lib none available none available
Mal Washer Moore WA Lib none available none available
Tony Crook O’Connor WA Nat none available none available
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